Buying a phone in 2026? Follow this one rule

After a relatively quiet start for phone launches, 2026 is really about to ramp up.

Google will announce the Pixel 10a on 18 February, the iPhone 17e is tipped for the following day and Samsung is set to launch the Galaxy S26 range on 25 February. Then MWC 2026 is just days after that, where we’ll see countless more mobiles unveiled.

They’ll all be vying for your attention; however, I have a growing sense that you might want to avoid them all.

Let me introduce you to my ‘previous gen’ rule.

Being a tech journalist, it’s unsurprising that friends and family ask for buying advice on all kinds of purchases. Phones are top of the list and typically, the person asking for advice isn’t a phone nerd like me (and probably you if you’re reading this), so I almost always apply my ‘previous gen’ rule.

It’s simple and you’ve probably guessed it already: buy last year’s model. And in 2026, there’s a high chance that even phone nerds wanting the latest and greatest should follow it.

There are three big reasons it’s the case this year.

Memory shortage

A big part of the equation this year is that there’s a shortage of memory in the technology world. This is in part down to the AI boom, and it means those parts for phones, as well as other tech, are more expensive.

The cost in many, if not most, cases will be passed onto the consumer.

A phone price rise was predicted last year and Xiaomi President Lu Weibing said on the subject: “I expect pressure to be much heavier next year than this year. Overall, consumers are likely to see a sizeable rise in product retail prices. Some of the pressure may have to be addressed through price hikes, but price increases alone won’t be enough to digest it.”

While the Pixel 10a is predicted to remain the same price as last year, the Galaxy S26 and S26+ are tipped to rise. Plenty of other handsets might follow suit throughout the year, including the Xiaomi 17 Ultra (above), so we’re not off to a good start.

Lack of innovation

We’re waiting for official details from the manufacturers, but rumours and leaks in the phone world are commonly bang on. And they all have a similar theme…

Phones in 2026 are going to be barely any different from their predecessors.

It actually felt as though smartphones hit a fairly hard ceiling of innovation a while ago, with high-resolution screens, more than good-enough cameras, enough power and storage.

Phone makers have managed to create enough interest in each new generation with tweaks to hardware and software to keep buyers wanting the latest models but we may actually have hit that ceiling now.

The Pixel 10a (above) is a prime example, as it looks set to be nearly identical to its predecessor. Meanwhile, Samsung has reportedly cancelled upgrades on the S26, such as Qi2 magnetic charging, to alleviate those price struggles.

It’s putting most of its bets on the S26 Ultra, which will at least come with a new privacy screen feature, but is that enough – even for enthusiasts?

Phones from just about every other brand seem to tell a similar story, so why should you bother?

Long software support

Over the last few years, we’ve witnessed Android phone manufacturers make more robust software promises, with even some mid-range and budget phones getting flagship-level support.

With six or even seven years of both security and OS updates, the lifespan of a phone is much longer (if you can keep the battery healthy, that is).

It means the previous gen rule has even more weight to it and you could even buy a phone that’s two or even three years old and it’ll still have legs.

Considering how heavily discounted even a 12-month-old handset can be, it’s very hard to justify buying the latest model.

A fallow year?

As mentioned earlier, we’ll have to wait for the official launches of the 2026 crop of phones, but surprises are rare these days.

If it all plays out as predicted, 2026 looks like a year that phone makers might, with hindsight, wish was a fallow one.

What 2027 will have in store is less known, but for now, follow my previous gen rule and I’m certain you’ll end up with a much better value purchase on your next phone – even if it isn’t the newest one available.